GUEST: CHAZ GUINN
Chaz Guinn is the Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Revolve Capital Group. Since 2008, Chaz has built and developed multiple real estate investment firms that specialize in purchasing, managing, and selling 1st lien Non-Performing and Re-Performing mortgage debt, backed by single-family homes. Chaz is known for bringing Institutional and Wall Street investments to main street investors, and has acquired over $1 billion directly from Tier 1 banks, Investment Banks, Large Real Estate Funds, GSE’s, and Servicers.
Having structured, negotiated, and raised over $200M from high-net-worth Accredited investors and Family offices, Chaz is educating a new wave of investors who traditionally invested into fix and flips, rentals, the stock market, commercial properties, etc., helping them create long-term cash-flow through the acquisition of mortgage debt.
Chaz earned a Bachelor of Science from Montana State University with an emphasis in Real Estate Finance and a minor in Business Administration. He now lives in Dallas, TX with his wife and two boys.
For a long time, Eddie has been saying the real estate industry is witnessing “a crash in slow motion.” Not everyone has believed him, at their own peril! Today’s episode of NoteSchool TV takes a deep dive into many of the factors driving this slow motion crash that most investors don’t see coming.
Our guest today is Chaz Guinn, the Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Revolve Capital Group. This guy knows the mortgage business! He specializes in showing investors the advantages of creating long-term cash-flow through the acquisition of mortgage debt. Chaz describes the incredibly high numbers of delinquent loans in the country today, and the numbers will blow your hair back. There were around 5.5 million delinquent “legacy” loans before the pandemic started. But today, there are a total of 10 million delinquent loans post-covid, plus there are millions fewer jobs now to help homeowners afford to get caught up on their monthly payments.
You’ll be shocked as Chaz, Eddie, and Joe reveal the many other factors behind the inevitable market price decline coming soon. Chaz estimates this giant shadow inventory is worth $30 to $35 billion, and he makes a major announcement—his company has just acquired a $29.3 million note portfolio (60% of which are behind a minimum of 36 months). Chaz describes today’s red hot market as having about a two month inventory, but he expects that to soon jump to 6 month and then to around 12 months of inventory—which is sure to bring downward pressure on property values. As Chaz put it, “You can only hold up the dam for so long.”
You’ll also love hearing Eddie share his insights of how the current market situation is similar yet different from previous black swan markets.
2:25 | Joe Varnadore gives news updates: CDC issues new eviction ban effective through October 3. Purchases of luxury homes surge 88.2% YoY.
4:15 | Joe introduces Eddie who introduces today’s guest, Chaz Guinn, President of Resolve Capital. Chaz explains why he recently moved from California to Texas, and his previous years in football.
14:25 | Chaz explains the inevitable wave of inventory that is coming. There were 5.5 million mortgages that were already delinquent before Covid, but foreclosures were blocked. Resolve is now buying this inventory of loans. He just acquired a $29.3 million note portfolio, 60% of which are behind a minimum of 36 months.
19:20 | Chaz estimates this giant shadow inventory is worth $30 to $35 billion. The industry has deemed these loans as “legacy,” meaning already delinquent pre-covid. They’re about to hit the market. There are a total of 10 million delinquent loans post-covid, plus there are millions fewer jobs now.
21:40 | The current real estate market has about 2 months of inventory, while a typical market has about 6 months. But data sources predict we will soon see 12 months of inventory.
23:00 | Normally, non-performing loans are bought in declining markets, but today we see many NPLs in a rising market, which is odd. Houses aren’t progressing through the normal foreclosure process.
25:10 | Chaz predicts investors will be able to buy properties for cents on the dollar very soon. The quality of the properties today are higher than on typical non-performing loans.
29:50 | Joe describes today’s sponsor: NotesDirect and Feeding Frenzy Friday.
31:40 | After Party begins. Topics discussed include: The odds are high of finding properties with high equity. Average delinquent rent is over $6k behind, but most of those properties are not being listed for sale with realtors… yet. What is the government going to do about all the foreclosures and evictions? (As Chaz put it, “You can only hold up the dam for so long.”) Even commercial vacancies are skyrocketing. Most homeowners are oblivious to the wave of inventory coming to market that will drive prices lower. Why it’s easier to deal in NPLs now than it used to be.